Being away from the murky atmosphere of uncertain outlook and weak demands, worldwide NB market will be stablized quarter by quarter in 2H09, according to Jane Tseng, Researcher of Topology Research Institute. The main driving forces include: (1) the official launch of Windows 7 in the fourth quarter, (2) the diverse development of NetBook, (3) the ultra-light ULV NB platform that is strongly endorsed by Intel, and (4) the Calpell platform to debut in the third quarter. It is believed that, powered by these innovative products, the NB market, which is still in low visibility, will be able to resume growth dynamics and head to a brighter horizon. Jane Tseng indicated, because of upgrading to new hardware/software platforms, the shipment of new models will be concentrated in the fourth quarter. As a result, the annual shipment of NBs is slighted downgraded to 148 million units from previously-estmated 150 million units, with annual growth rate reducing from 17.2% to 15.6%. However, the worldwide NetBook shipment will still remain at 27.25 million units, accounting for 18.4% of the overall NB market.

Momentum 1: Official Launch of Windows 7 in 4Q

Due to the good market responses to Windows 7 and the poor adoption of Vista, it is believed that users will migrate directly from Windows XP to Windows 7, which will bring much higher penetration rate to Windows 7 over Vista and XP. Therefore, TRI is optimistic that Windows 7 will help boost purchasing demands in the fourth quarter to 2010 and will increase selling points to the gloomy NB market.

Momentum 2: Diverse Development of NetBook

In order to rival with Intel Atom-based NetBook, ARM unveils a new concept of Smartbook, which is similar to smartphone and NetBook in terms of form factor and hardware features but is charaterized with Always-on and Connected. Qualcomm, an ARM-based silicon provider, has teamed up with Compal, Pegatron, Wistron, and Iventect to launch USD 199 Smartbook products in the third quarter. On the other hand, the Android-based NetBook will also enter the market in 2H09. For example, at COMPUTEX, Acer took the lead to demonstrate the world’s first Android NetBook, which adopts dual operating system design and will be released in the third quarter. However, Jane Tseng pointed out that the usage behavior is not easy to change in a short term. So, manufacturers will only consider Android NetBook a niche market or launch NetBook of dual systems to test market response in 2009. It is very obvious that NetBook is moving towards a new era of diverse development.

Momentum 3: Ultra Thin NB

Ultra Thin is the main theme of Intel’s recent marketing campaign. The company strongly promotes its ULV series, which can satisfy the demands of performance and low power at the same time, to become the mainstream in the market. It is estimated that ULV will be the fastest growing segment in NB market of 2H09. According to the data released by Intel, Ultra Thin NB designs will account for 20% of Intel’s consumer processor shipment in 4Q. Big brandnames, such as Acer, Asus, HP, and Dell, all fully support and deploy ULV platform. With lots of new products to be released in 2H09, Jane Tseng offers an optimistic outlook of over 15 million units ultra-thin NB shipment and 10% market penetration.

Momentum 4: Calpell Platform to Debut in 3Q

Intel’s next-generation Centrino platform, “Calpella”, will be launched with Windows 7 in 3Q. The new platform differs significantly from previous generation. There are no longer north and south bridges in a chipset; instead, Intel integrates the memory controller and graphics into a single processor. In addition, the PCH (Platform Controller Hub), code named “Ibex Peak-M”, is designed to connect processor through DMI interface. Calpella will be an alternative for upgrading NBs in 2H09.

Brandnames Reshuffle and EMS Competes

According to Jane Tseng, regarding the deployment of brandnames, Samsung and MSI have quickly gained market shares and economic scales through large NetBook shipments, which has caused impact on the ranking of worldwide PC makers. As for the shipments of ODMs, Compal and Iventec have better performances in terms of 1H09 and the whole year. Quanta’s shipment began to increase obviously in June this year, and is estimated to rise quarterly in 2H09. But its annual shipment may only keep flat compared to that of 2008. Impacted by the weak demands from Asus and limited new oders, the shipment of Pegatron declined in 1H09. According to TRI, it is estimated that Pegatron will be able to recover quarter by quarter for the coming peak season of 2H09. But, it’s worth observing that EMS also aggressively moves into NB manufacturing business, which has already bring influence on the performances of Taiwanese ODMs. The annual growth rate of top five Taiwanese ODMs is around 11.4%, which is lower than the 15.6% annual growth rate of worldwide NB shipment.